Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13779
Authors: Cemal Eren Arbatli; Quamrul H. Ashraf; Oded Galor; Marc Klemp
Abstract: This research advances the hypothesis and establishes empirically that interpersonal population diversity has contributed significantly to the emergence, prevalence, recurrence, and severity of intrasocietal conflicts. Exploiting an exogenous source of variations in population diversity across nations and ethnic groups, it demonstrates that population diversity, as determined predominantly during the exodus of humans from Africa tens of thousands of years ago, has contributed significantly to the risk and intensity of historical and contemporary civil conflicts. The findings arguably reflect the adverse effect of population diversity on interpersonal trust, its contribution to divergence in preferences for public goods and redistributive policies, and its impact on the degree of fractionalization and polarization across ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups.
Keywords: social conflict; population diversity; ethnic fractionalization; ethnic polarization; interpersonal trust; political preferences
JEL Codes: D74; N30; N40; O11; O43; Z13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Population diversity (J15) | Mutual trust (Z13) |
| Population diversity (J15) | Divergence in preferences for public goods (H49) |
| Population diversity (J15) | Fractionalization and polarization (H77) |
| Civil conflicts (D74) | Social, political, and economic instability (O17) |
| Population diversity (J15) | Civil conflicts (D74) |