Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13632
Authors: Philipp Ager; Katherine Eriksson; Casper Worm Hansen; Lars Lønstrup
Abstract: This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake on the spatial distribution of economic activity in the American West. Using variation in the potential damage intensity of the earthquake, we show that more severely affected cities experienced lower population increases relative to less affected cities until the late 20th century. This long-lasting effect is largely a result of individuals’ high geographical mobility at that time. Less affected areas became more attractive migration destinations in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, which permanently changed the spatial distribution of economic activity in the American West.
Keywords: Economic Geography; Location of Economic Activity; Migration; Natural Disasters; American West
JEL Codes: N9; O15; O40; R11; R12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Earthquake intensity (Q54) | Population size (J11) |
| Earthquake damage (H84) | Population size (J11) |
| Higher earthquake intensity (Q54) | Decline in population relative to less affected cities (R23) |
| Geographical mobility during the period (J62) | Shifts in population distribution (J11) |