Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13609
Authors: Philipp Ager; Benedikt Herz
Abstract: This paper provides new insights on the relationship between structural change and the fertility transition. We exploit the spread of an agricultural pest in the American South in the 1890s as plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural production to establish a causal link between earnings opportunities in agriculture and fertility. Households staying in agriculture reduced fertility because children are a normal good, while households switching to manufacturing reduced fertility because of the higher opportunity costs of raising children. The lower earnings opportunities in agriculture also decreased the value of child labor which increased schooling, consistent with a quantity-quality model of fertility.
Keywords: fertility transition; structural change; industrialization; agricultural income
JEL Codes: J13; N31; O14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| boll weevil infestation (N52) | agricultural income (Q19) |
| agricultural income (Q19) | fertility (J13) |
| boll weevil infestation (N52) | fertility (J13) |
| switching from agriculture to manufacturing (O14) | fertility (J13) |