Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13523
Authors: Mark Koyama; Remi Jedwab; Noel Johnson
Abstract: The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347-1352, making it one of the largest shocks in history. Despite its importance, little is known about its spatial effects and the effects of pandemics more generally. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in Plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of the Black Death on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-Plague populations within two centuries. In addition, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. We show that both of these facts are consistent with a Malthusian model in which population returns to high-mortality locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in urban recovery. Our study highlights the role played by pandemics in determining both the sizes and placements of populations.
Keywords: Black Death; Path Dependence; Cities; Urbanization; Malthusian Theory; Migration; Growth
JEL Codes: R11; R12; O11; O47; J11; N00; N13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Black Death mortality (J17) | city population (R23) |
| Black Death mortality (J17) | urban recovery (R58) |
| land suitability and trade networks (Q37) | urban recovery (R58) |
| Black Death mortality (J17) | city growth (R11) |
| city characteristics (R12) | city growth (R11) |
| initial conditions (C62) | city growth (R11) |