Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13485
Authors: Viola Von Berlepsch; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
Abstract: This paper examines if internal migrants at the turn of the 20th century have influenced the long-term economic development of the counties where they settled over 100 years ago. Using Census microdata from 1880 and 1910, the distance travelled by American-born migrants between birthplace and county of residence is examined to assess its relevance for the economic development of US counties today. The settlement patterns of domestic migrants across the 48 continental states are then linked to current county-level development. Factors influencing both migration at the time and the level of development of the county today are controlled for. The results of the analysis underline the economic importance of internal migration. Counties that attracted American-born migrants more than 100 years ago are significantly richer today. Moreover, distance is crucial for the impact of internal migration on long-term economic development; the larger the distance travelled by domestic migrants, the greater the long-term economic impact on the receiving territories.
Keywords: internal migration; distance; long-term economic development; counties; US
JEL Codes: J61; N11; O15; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| historical migration (F22) | current economic prosperity (P17) |
| distance traveled by domestic migrants (J61) | long-term economic impact on receiving counties (F69) |
| share of internal migrants in 1880 (R23) | income per capita in 2010 (P24) |
| diverse population composition (R23) | economic development (O29) |
| internal migrants (long-distance) (J61) | lasting economic legacy on counties (N92) |