Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13449
Authors: Gabriel Ahlfeldt; Wolfgang Maennig; Steffen Mueller
Abstract: We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democracy outcomes across a wide range of topics using postelection survey data covering more than 300 Swiss referenda and four decades. We find that young voters are more likely to support reform projects that are politically liberal, support the young, or protect the environment. We separate age and cohort effects without imposing functional form constraints using a panel rank regression approach. The aging effect on political orientation is robust for con-trolling for arbitrary cohort effects and appears to be driven by expected utility maximization and not by habitu-ation-induced status-quo bias. In Switzerland, population ageing is already affecting direct democracy outcomes. Five referenda since 2004 would have had a different outcome, had the population distribution remained at 1981 levels.
Keywords: age; cohort; direct democracy; generation gap; status quo; referendum; reform; utility
JEL Codes: D7; H3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Voters age (K16) | Less politically liberal (P19) |
| Voters age (K16) | Less supportive of policies that protect the environment (F64) |
| Voters age (K16) | Less supportive of policies that support young workers and families (J89) |
| Voters age (K16) | Less supportive of policies that redistribute wealth from the rich to the poor (P19) |
| Aging effects (J14) | Shift in political orientation from left to right (P26) |
| Aging effects (J14) | Generation gap in direct democracy outcomes (D72) |
| Aging effect around retirement age (J26) | Political orientation change (D72) |