Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13443
Authors: Adrien Bougen; Yue Huang; Michael Kremer; Edward Miguel
Abstract: We assess evidence from randomized control trials (RCTs) on long-run economic productivity and living standards in poor countries. We first document that several studies estimate large positive long-run impacts, but that relatively few existing RCTs have been evaluated over the long-run. We next present evidence from a systematic survey of existing RCTs, with a focus on cash transfer and child health programs, and show that a meaningful subset can realistically be evaluated for long-run effects. We discuss ways to bridge the gap between the burgeoning number of development RCTs and the limited number that have been followed up to date, including through new panel (longitudinal) data, improved participant tracking methods, alternative research designs, and access to administrative, remote sensing, and cell phone data. We conclude that the rise of development economics RCTs since roughly 2000 provides a novel opportunity to generate high-quality evidence on the long-run drivers of living standards.
Keywords: Randomized Controlled Trials; Long-Run Impacts; Panel Longitudinal Data; Development Economics; Cash Transfers; Child Health
JEL Codes: No JEL codes provided
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| cash transfer programs (F16) | living standards (I31) |
| cash transfer programs (F16) | physical capital or human capital (E22) |
| physical capital or human capital (E22) | economic productivity (O49) |
| unconditional cash transfers (H53) | education outcomes (I24) |
| unconditional cash transfers (H53) | health outcomes (I14) |
| education outcomes (I24) | economic productivity (O49) |
| child health interventions (I14) | labor market outcomes (J48) |
| child health interventions (I14) | earnings (J31) |
| child health interventions (I14) | consumption (E21) |
| educational interventions (I24) | labor market outcomes (J48) |
| educational interventions (I24) | earnings (J31) |
| educational interventions (I24) | job security (J28) |