Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13390
Authors: Nicola Gennaioli; Guido Tabellini
Abstract: We present a theory of identity politics that builds on two ideas. First, voters identify with the social group whose interests are closest to theirs and that features the strongest policy confict with outgroups. Second, identfication causes voters to slant their beliefs of self and others toward group stereotypes. The theory yields two main implications: i) votersÂ’ beliefs are polarized along the distinctive features of salient groups; ii) economic shocks that render new groups salient bring about large and non standard changes in beliefs and policies across many issues. In particular, exposure to globalization or cultural changes may induce voters to switch identities, dampening their demand for redistribution and exacerbating conflicts in other social dimensions. We show that survey evidence is broadly consistent with these implications.
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Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Voter identification with social groups (D79) | polarization in beliefs (D72) |
| Identification with a social group (Z13) | beliefs about self and others (D83) |
| Economic shocks (F69) | salience of social groups (C92) |
| salience of social groups (C92) | changes in identity and beliefs (Z13) |
| Exposure to globalization or cultural changes (F69) | switch identities (J62) |
| switch identities (J62) | decrease support for redistribution (D39) |
| Economic shocks hitting socially conservative groups (Z12) | enhance cohesion within these groups (F55) |
| enhance cohesion within these groups (F55) | reduction in demand for redistribution (D39) |