Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13306
Authors: Tito Boeri; Prachi Mishra; Chris Papageorgiou; Antonio Spilimbergo
Abstract: Populists claim to be the only legitimate representative of the people. Does it mean that there is no space for civil society? The issue is important because since Tocqueville (1835), associations and civil society have been recognized as a key factor in a healthy liberal democracy. We ask two questions: 1) do individuals who are members of civil associations vote less for populist parties? 2) does membership to associations decrease when populist parties are in power? We answer these questions looking at the experiences of Europe, which has a rich civil society tradition, as well as of Latin America, which has already a long history of populists in power. The main findings are that individuals belonging to associations are less likely by 2.4 to 4.2 percent to vote for populist parties, which is large considering that the average vote share for populist parties is between 10 and 15 percent. The effect is strong particularly after the global financial crisis, with the important caveat that membership to trade unions has unclear effects.
Keywords: democracy; voting; populist parties; associations; europe; latin america
JEL Codes: P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Trade union density declines in countries governed by populist parties (J58) | Civil society (L39) |
| Civil association membership (D71) | Likelihood of voting for populist parties (D72) |
| Civil association membership (D71) | Voting behavior (D72) |