Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13257
Authors: Roland Hodler; Paul A. Raschky; Anthony Strittmatter
Abstract: This study examines the effect of religiosity on terrorism by focusing on one of the five pillars of Islam: Ramadan fasting. For identification, we exploit two facts: First, daily fasting from dawn to sunset during Ramadan is considered mandatory for most Muslims. Second, the Islamic calendar is not synchronized with the solar cycle. We find a robust negative effect of more intense Ramadan fasting on terrorist events within districts and country-years in predominantly Muslim countries. We argue that this effect partly operates through a decrease in public support for terrorism, which in turn reduces the operational capabilities of terrorist groups.
Keywords: terrorism; economics of religion
JEL Codes: D74; H56; Z12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increased Ramadan fasting (Z12) | Decrease in terrorist events (H56) |
| Increased Ramadan fasting (Z12) | Decrease in fatal terrorist events (H56) |
| Decrease in public support for terrorism (H56) | Decrease in terrorist events (H56) |
| Increased Ramadan fasting (Z12) | Decrease in public support for terrorism (H56) |
| Decrease in public support for terrorism (H56) | Diminished operational capabilities of terrorist groups (H56) |
| Diminished operational capabilities of terrorist groups (H56) | Decrease in terrorist events (H56) |
| Increased Ramadan fasting (Z12) | Decrease in the share of Muslims who justify violence (Z12) |