Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13238
Authors: Thomas Le Barbanchon; Julien Sauvagnat
Abstract: We quantify the implications of voter bias and electoral competition for politicians' gender composition. Unfavorable voters' attitudes towards women and local gender earnings gap correlate negatively with the share of female candidates in Parliamentary elections. Using within-candidate variation across the different polling stations of an electoral district in a given election year, we find that female candidates obtain fewer votes in municipalities with higher gender earnings gaps. We show theoretically that when voters are biased against women, parties facing gender quotas select male candidates in the most contestable districts. We find empirical support for such a strategic party response to voter gender bias. Simulating our calibrated model confirms that competition significantly hinders the effectiveness of gender quotas.
Keywords: Women in Politics; Electoral Competition; Gender Attitudes; Gender Quotas
JEL Codes: D72; D78; J16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 10% increase in contestable districts (D72) | 25% reduction in elected women due to gender quotas (J16) |
| Unfavorable voter attitudes towards women (J16) | Representation of female candidates (J16) |
| Electoral competition (D72) | Representation of female candidates (J16) |
| Voter bias against women (J16) | Candidate selection behavior (D79) |