Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP1318
Authors: John P. Haiskende New; Klaus F. Zimmermann
Abstract: The paper investigates the relative importance of trade and immigration for earnings and job mobility of male German workers. Using panel data, changes of workplace within a firm and between firms are separated from occupational changes. Various subgroups are investigated, differentiating between blue and white collar workers according to job level and work experience. The general finding is that trade matters more than migration, which is contrary to the public attention both determinants receive, at least in Germany. While wages are affected negatively by a relative increase in imports, immigration exhibits a positive effect. Trade seems to depress occupational mobility and internal movement, but stimulates inter-firm changes. Immigration affects intra-firm changes negatively, but is largely unrelated to other aspects of labour mobility.
Keywords: panel data; probit model; trade; wages; occupational mobility; international migration
JEL Codes: C22; C35; F10; F22; J31; J62
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| trade (F19) | labor market outcomes (J48) |
| trade deficit ratio (F14) | male wages (J31) |
| trade (F19) | occupational mobility (J62) |
| trade (F19) | internal movement within firms (F20) |
| trade (F19) | interfirm mobility (J62) |
| immigration (F22) | intrafirm mobility (J62) |