Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13162
Authors: Brian Bell; Rui Costa; Stephen Machin
Abstract: Prior research shows reduced criminality to be a beneficial consequence of education policies that raise the school leaving age. This paper studies how crime reductions occurred in a sequence of state-level dropout age reforms enacted between 1980 and 2010 in the United States. These reforms changed the shape of crime-age profiles, reflecting both a temporary incapacitation effect and a more sustained, longer run crime reducing effect. In contrast to the previous research looking at earlier US education reforms, crime reduction does not arise solely as a result of education improvements, and so the observed longer run effect is interpreted as dynamic incapacitation. Additional evidence based on longitudinal data combined with an education reform from a different setting in Australia corroborates the finding of dynamic incapacitation underpinning education policy-induced crime reduction.
Keywords: Crime; Age Profiles; School Dropout; Compulsory Schooling Laws
JEL Codes: I2; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Compulsory school leaving (CSL) laws (I21) | crime rates (K42) |
| staying in school longer (I21) | crime rates (K42) |
| educational benefits of remaining in school (I21) | reduced criminal behavior (K42) |
| changes in age structure of criminality (J11) | observed crime reduction (K42) |