Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13060
Authors: Jan David Bakker; Stephan E. Maurer; Jrn-Steffen Pischke; Ferdinand Rauch
Abstract: We study the causal connection between trade and development using one of the earliest massive trade expansions: the first systematic crossing of open seas in the Mediterranean during the time of the Phoenicians. We construct a measure of connectedness along the shores of the sea. This connectivity varies with the shape of the coast, the location of islands, and the distance to the opposing shore. We relateconnectedness to local growth, which we measure using the presence of archaeological sites in an area. We find an association between better connected locations and archaeological sites during the Iron Age, at a time when sailors began to cross open water very routinely and on a big scale. We corroborate these findings at the level of the world.
Keywords: Urbanization; Locational Fundamentals; Trade
JEL Codes: F14; N7; O47
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increased connectivity (F60) | Increased number of archaeological sites (Z10) |
| Increased connectivity (F60) | Increased urbanization (R11) |
| Increased connectivity (F60) | Increased settlement density (R23) |
| Coastal geography (R12) | Increased connectivity (F60) |
| Increased connectivity (F60) | Increased economic activity (F69) |
| Coastal geography (R12) | Increased urbanization (R11) |
| Coastal geography (R12) | Increased settlement density (R23) |
| Increased connectivity (F60) | Economic development (O29) |