Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13023
Authors: Gregory Clark; Neil Cummins
Abstract: Abstract The North of England is now poorer and less educated than the South. Using complete population data at the surname level 1837-2006, and a large sample of individuals born 1780-1929, this paper shows two things. First an important element in the decline of the North was selective outmigration of those with education and talent. This migration is evident even for the generation born 1780-1809, and continued to those born 1900-1929. There was also selective migration to the South of those with education and talent coming from outside England - Irish, Scottish, Pakistanis and others. However the migration of talent to the South created no significant external benefits to workers in the South, as would be predicted by the doctrines of the New Economic Geography. Surnames concentrated in the North do not show any national disadvantage in education, occupation or wealth. Also for workers of a given education or social background there is at most a very modest locational disadvantage associated with being born in the North. Thus there will be no efficiency gain from facilitating further migration south from the North, or from further efforts to bolster the economy of the North through government aid.
Keywords: regional growth; new economic geography; sorting in labor market
JEL Codes: N33; R23; J61
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Selective outmigration of educated and talented individuals from the North (J61) | Economic decline of Northern England (N93) |
| Outmigration of talent (F22) | Depletion of talent pool in the North (R23) |
| Locational disadvantage for individuals remaining in the North (R23) | Poorer social outcomes for individuals with Northern surnames (J15) |
| Migration of talent to the South (J61) | Significant external benefits for the Southern economy (R11) |
| Lower inherent socioeconomic status of the remaining population (R23) | Poorer outcomes in the North (I14) |