Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13021
Authors: Giorgio Chiovelli; Stelios Michalopoulos; Elias Papaioannou
Abstract: Landmine contamination affects the lives of millions in many conflict-ridden countries long after the cessation of hostilities. Yet, little research exists on its impact on post-conflict recovery. In this study, we explore the economic consequences of landmine clearance in Mozambique, the only country that has moved from "heavily-contaminated" in 1992 to "mine-free" status in 2015. First, we compile a dataset detailing the evolution of clearance, collecting thousands of reports from the numerous demining actors. Second, we exploit the timing of demining to assess its impact on local economic activity, as reflected in satellite images of light density at night. The analysis reveals a moderate positive association that masks sizeable heterogeneity. Economic activity responds strongly to clearance of the transportation network, trade hubs, and more populous areas, while the demining-development association is weak in rural areas of low population density. Third, recognizing that landmine removal recon˝figured the accessibility to the transportation infrastructure, we apply a "market-access" approach to quantify both its direct and indirect effects. The market-access estimates reveal substantial improvements on aggregate economic activity. The market-access benefits of demining are also present in localities without any contamination. Fourth, counterfactual policy simulations project considerable gains had the fragmented process of clearance in Mozambique been centrally coordinated, prioritizing clearance of the colonial transportation routes.
Keywords: landmines; postconflict recovery; civil war; trade; infrastructure; network
JEL Codes: N47; N77; O10; O55
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| central coordination of clearance (F42) | significant economic gains (F69) |
| fragmentation in demining efforts (F12) | lost opportunities for economic recovery (E65) |
| landmine clearance (L72) | economic activity (E20) |
| landmine clearance (L72) | economic activity in transportation networks, trade hubs, and densely populated areas (R11) |
| landmine clearance (L72) | economic activity in rural regions with low population density (R11) |
| landmine clearance (L72) | aggregate economic activity in regions without direct contamination (R11) |