Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP12839
Authors: Teresa C. Fort; Justin R. Pierce; Peter K. Schott
Abstract: We use relatively unexplored dimensions of US microdata to examine howUS manufacturing employment has evolved across industries, firms, establish-ments, and regions from 1977 to 2012. We show that these data provide support for both trade-and technology-based explanations of the overall decline of employment over thisperiod, while also highlighting the difficulties of estimating an overall contributionfor each mechanism. Toward that end, we discuss how further analysis ofthese trends might yield sharper insights.
Keywords: US manufacturing employment; trade; technology
JEL Codes: F6; J6; E24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| trade (F19) | manufacturing employment decline (O14) |
| technology (O39) | manufacturing employment decline (O14) |
| net firm death (D85) | manufacturing employment decline (O14) |
| net plant exit (D85) | manufacturing employment decline (O14) |
| regional employment shifts (R23) | manufacturing employment decline (O14) |
| technology adoption (O33) | high fixed costs (G31) |
| manufacturing employment (L60) | non-manufacturing employment (L69) |