Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP12785
Authors: Antonio Ciccone
Abstract: I examine whether transitory events can tip the scales against authoritarian regimes and lead to persistent democratization. I think of situations where this is a possibility as democratic tipping points. The transitory events I focus on are rainfall shocks in the most agricultural countries in the world. I show that while these shocks only affect agricultural output contemporaneously, they have persistent effects on political institutions. Authoritarian regimes experiencing negative rainfall shocks are more likely to be democratic three, five, and ten years later.
Keywords: transitory shocks; persistent democratization
JEL Codes: No JEL codes provided
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| negative rainfall shocks (Q54) | agricultural output (Q11) |
| agricultural output (Q11) | democratization (D72) |
| negative rainfall shocks (Q54) | democratization (D72) |