Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP12763
Authors: Tito Boeri; Prachi Mishra; Chris Papageorgiou; Antonio Spilimbergo
Abstract: In this imaginary dialogue, a populist and an economist discuss the role of economic shocks to explain populism. A simple correlation between economic shocks and populism is weak. However, economic shocks can explain well the phenomenon of populism in countries with low pre-existent level of trust. This is confirmed both at the macro cross-country level and also by micro evidence obtained from surveys. Finally, this finding is consistent with the “ideational approach” in political science, which emphasizes how the populist narrative opposes the “corrupt elite” to the “virtuous people.”
Keywords: populism; europe; political parties
JEL Codes: A12; A10; E71; A14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic shocks (F69) | likelihood of voting for populist parties (D72) |
| low preexisting trust (Z13) | moderating effect on economic shocks and populist voting (D72) |
| higher unemployment rates (J64) | greater populist support in low-trust environments (D72) |
| trust (G21) | moderating effect on economic shocks and populist support (F41) |