Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP12744
Authors: Paula Gobbi; Marc Goi
Abstract: We provide new evidence on the two-way link between fertility decisions on the extensive margin and inheritance. We focus on settlements, a popular inheritance scheme among British aristocrats that combined primogeniture and a one-generation entail of the family estates. Usingpeerage records (1650-1882), we find that settlements affected the extensive margin of fertility: they reduced childlessness rates by 14.7 pp., ensuring the survival of aristocratic dynasties. Since settlements were signed only if the family head survived until his heir's wedding, weestablish causality by exploiting variation in the heirs birth order. Next, we show that the extensive margin of fertility can shape inheritance rules. We build a model with inter-generational hyperbolic discounting where inheritance rules affect fertility and, in turn, schemes restrictingsuccessors (e.g., settlements or trusts) emerge endogenously in response to concerns over the dynasty's survival. These results highlight the importance of fertility decisions for the analysis of inheritance.
Keywords: childlessness; inheritance; elites; settlement; fertility; intergenerational discounting
JEL Codes: J13; K36; N33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| inheritance settlements (D14) | childlessness rates (J13) |
| father surviving until wedding (J12) | signing of settlements (Y20) |
| signing of settlements (Y20) | fertility decisions (J13) |
| dynastic survival concerns (D15) | emergence of inheritance schemes (D14) |
| inheritance schemes (D14) | fertility choices (J13) |