Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP1264
Authors: Stefan Gerlach
Abstract: This paper studies the usefulness of spreads between interest rates of different maturities as indicators of future inflation and real interest rates in Germany, using monthly data from the first quarter of 1967. The central results are two-fold. First, the interest rate spreads considered contain considerable information about future changes in inflation, but no information about the time path of real interest rates. Second, the medium-term segment of the yield curve (spreads between six- and two-year rates, for instance) appears to be the most informative for future inflation. These results are similar to those obtained by Mishkin (1990b) and Jorion and Mishkin (1991).
Keywords: Inflation expectations; Term structure; Information content
JEL Codes: E43; E52
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| interest rate spreads (E43) | future inflation rates (E31) |
| medium-term segments of the yield curve (E43) | future inflation (E31) |
| interest rate spreads (E43) | inflation expectations (E31) |
| interest rate spreads (E43) | future real interest rates (E43) |