Temporary Price Changes, Inflation Regimes, and the Propagation of Monetary Shocks

Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP12638

Authors: Fernando Alvarez; Francesco Lippi

Abstract: We analyze a sticky price model where firms choose a price plan, namely a set of two prices. Changing the plan entails a “menu cost”, but either price in the plan can be charged at any point in time. We analytically solve for the optimal policy and for the output response to a monetary shock. The setup rationalizes the coexistence of many price changes, most of which are temporary, with a modest flexibility of the aggregate price level. We present evidence consistent with the model implications using CPI data for Argentina across a wide range of inflation rates.

Keywords: sticky prices; menu cost models; temporary price changes; reference prices; price plans; price flexibility

JEL Codes: E3; E5


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
temporary price changes (P22)real effect of monetary shock (E39)
temporary price changes (P22)monetary policy transmission (F42)
model with temporary prices (C54)larger real effect of monetary shock (E19)
frequency of reference price changes held constant (E30)smaller effect of monetary shock in model with temporary prices (E39)
simpler models (C20)underestimations of monetary policy impact (E52)

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