Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP12626
Authors: Alan De Bromhead; Alan Fernihough; Markus Lampe; Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
Abstract: A recent literature explores the nature and causes of the collapse ininternational trade during 2008 and 2009. The decline was particularlygreat for automobiles and industrial supplies; it occurred largely alongthe intensive margin; quantities fell by more than prices; and pricesfell less for differentiated products. Do these stylised facts apply totrade collapses more generally? This paper uses detailed, commodityspecificinformation on UK imports between 1929 and 1933, to see towhat extent the trade collapses of the Great Depression and GreatRecession resembled each other. It also compares the free tradingtrade collapse of 1929-31 with the protectionist collapse of 1931-3, tosee to what extent protection, and gradual recovery from the GreatDepression, mattered for UK trade patterns.
Keywords: Great Depression; Great Recession; Trade Protectionism
JEL Codes: F14; N74
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic output (E23) | trade volumes (F10) |
| protectionist policies (F52) | geographical imbalance in trade (F19) |
| macroeconomic conditions (E66) | trade outcomes (F10) |
| deflation (E31) | trade collapse (F19) |
| similar types of goods (L15) | response to economic shocks (E32) |