Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP12573
Authors: Raphael Franck; Stelios Michalopoulos
Abstract: During the French Revolution, more than 100,000 supporters of the Old Regime, fled France. Local elites in some departments were dramatically reduced, whereas in others the social structure remained largely unchanged. Instrumenting emigration with temperature shocks during an inflection point of the Revolution, the summer of 1792, we find that émigrés have a non-monotonic impact on comparative development. During the 19th century, the decline of landed elites in high-emigration regions led to the fragmentation of agricultural holdings, depressing labor productivity. Nevertheless, this facilitated the rise in human capital investments, leading to a reversal in economic performance during the 20th century.
Keywords: Revolution; Elites; Climate Shocks; France; Development
JEL Codes: N23; N24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Emigration (F22) | Local GDP per capita (E20) |
| Fragmentation of agricultural holdings (Q15) | Local GDP per capita (E20) |
| Increased investments in human capital (J24) | Local GDP per capita (E20) |
| Emigration (F22) | Composition of local elites (D79) |
| Composition of local elites (D79) | Local economic development (O29) |
| Higher temperature shocks (C69) | Emigration (F22) |
| Higher temperature shocks (C69) | Peasant riots (N93) |