Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP12531
Authors: David de la Croix; Faustine Perrin
Abstract: We analyze how much a core rational-choice model can explain the temporal andspatial variation in fertility and school enrollment in France during the 19th century. Theoriginality of our approach is in our reliance on the structural estimation of a system offirst-order conditions to identify the deep parameters. Another new dimension is our useof gendered education data, allowing us to have a richer theory having implications for thegender wage and education gaps. Results indicate that the parsimonious rational-choicemodel explains 38 percent of the variation of fertility over time and across counties, aswell as 71 percent and 83 percent of school enrollment of boys and girls, respectively. Theanalysis of the residuals (unexplained by the economic model) indicates that additionalinsights might be gained by interacting incentives with cross-county differences in familystructure and cultural barriers.
Keywords: quality-quantity tradeoff; education; gender gap; demographic transition; france; family; macroeconomics
JEL Codes: J13; N33; O11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Economic incentives (M52) | Fertility (J13) |
| Economic incentives (M52) | Boys' school enrollment (I21) |
| Economic incentives (M52) | Girls' school enrollment (I24) |
| Cultural factors and family structures (J12) | Fertility (J13) |
| Highly educated parents (I24) | Quality-quantity tradeoff in child-rearing (J13) |