Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP12509
Authors: Alan M. Taylor; Katharina Knoll; Dmitry Kuvshinov; Moritz Schularick; Oscar Jorda
Abstract: This paper answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern economic thought since the 18th century. What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long-run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive dataset for all major asset classes, including—for the first time—total returns to the largest, but oft ignored, component of household wealth, housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new insights and puzzles.
Keywords: Return on capital; Interest rates; Yields; Dividends; Rents; Capital gains; Risk premiums; Household wealth; Housing markets
JEL Codes: D31; E44; E10; G10; G12; N10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| asset class performance (G19) | wealth accumulation (E21) |
| residential real estate performance (R31) | wealth accumulation (E21) |
| equities performance (G12) | wealth accumulation (E21) |
| real safe asset return volatility (G17) | government finances (H69) |
| real safe asset return volatility (G17) | investment strategies (G11) |
| risk premium stability (G19) | wealth accumulation (E21) |
| r (returns to wealth) > g (economic growth rate) (F62) | wealth inequality (D31) |