Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP12088
Authors: Leonardo Bursztyn; Davide Cantoni; Patricia Funk; Noam Yuchtman
Abstract: We exploit naturally occurring variation in the existence, closeness, and dissemination of pre-election polls to identify a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout in Swiss referenda. Closer elections are associated with greater turnout only when polls exist. Examining within-election variation in newspaper reporting on polls across cantons, we find that close polls increase turnout significantly more where newspapers report on them most. This holds examining only "incidental" exposure to coverage by periodicals whose largest audience is elsewhere. The introduction of polls had larger effects in politically unrepresentative municipalities, where locally available information differs most from national polls.
Keywords: voter turnout; media; polls
JEL Codes: D72; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| anticipated election closeness (K16) | voter turnout (K16) |
| pre-election polls (D79) | anticipated election closeness (K16) |
| poll closeness (K16) | voter turnout (K16) |
| local newspaper reporting on polls (C83) | voter turnout (K16) |
| anticipated election closeness (K16) | voter turnout in politically unrepresentative municipalities (D72) |