Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP11124
Authors: Marianne Bertrand; Patricia Cortes; Claudia Olivetti; Jessica Pan
Abstract: In most of the developed world, skilled women marry at a lower rate than unskilled women. We document heterogeneity across countries in how the marriage gap for skilled women has evolved over time. As labor market opportunities for women have improved, the marriage gap has been growing in some countries but shrinking in others. We discuss a theoretical model in which the (negative) social attitudes towards working women might contribute towards the lower marriage rate of skilled women, and might also induce a non-linear relationship between their labor market prospects and their marriage outcomes. The model is suited to understand the dynamics of the marriage gap for skilled women over time within a country with set social attitudes towards working women. The model also delivers predictions about how the marriage gap for skilled women should react to changes in their labor market opportunities across countries with more or less conservative attitudes towards working women. We test the key predictions of this model in a panel of 23 developed countries, as well as in a panel of US states.
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Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| negative social attitudes towards working women (J16) | lower marriage rates for skilled women (J12) |
| women's wages increase (J39) | marriage penalty first rises (J12) |
| marriage penalty first rises (J12) | reaches a peak (E32) |
| reaches a peak (E32) | then declines (E32) |
| increases in skilled women's wages (J31) | negatively impact marriage likelihood in traditional societies (J12) |
| increases in skilled women's wages (J31) | positively impact marriage likelihood in more gender-equal societies (J12) |