Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP11110
Authors: Randi Hjalmarsson; Matthew Lindquist
Abstract: This paper uses detailed individual register data to identify the causal effect of mandatory peacetime military conscription in Sweden on the lives of young men born in the 1970s and 80s. Because draftees are positively selected into service based on their draft board test performance, our primary identification strategy uses the random assignment of potential conscripts to draft board officiators who have relatively high or low tendencies to place draftees into service in an instrumental variable framework. We find that military service significantly increases post-service crime (overall and across multiple crime categories) between ages 23 and 30. These results are driven primarily by young men with pre-service criminal histories and who come from low socioeconomic status households. Though we find evidence of an incapacitation effect concurrent with conscription, it is unfortunately not enough to break a cycle of crime that has already begun prior to service. Analyses of labor market outcomes tell similar post-service stories: individuals from disadvantaged backgrounds have significantly lower income, and are more likely to receive unemployment and welfare benefits, as a result of service, while service significantly increases income and does not impact welfare and unemployment for those at the other end of the distribution. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that peer effects may play an important role in explaining the unintended negative impacts of military service.
Keywords: conscription; crime; criminal behaviour; draft; incapacitation; labor market; military conscription; military draft; unemployment
JEL Codes: H56; J08; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Military service (H56) | Increase in post-service crime rates (K42) |
| Military service (H56) | Increase in likelihood of conviction (K14) |
| Military service (H56) | Increase in average convictions (K14) |
| Military service (H56) | Lower income post-service (I24) |
| Military service (H56) | Higher propensity for unemployment and welfare benefits (J68) |
| Prior criminal history and low socioeconomic background (K14) | Increase in post-service crime rates (K42) |
| Peer effects (C92) | Negative labor market outcomes (F66) |
| Incapacitation effect during service (I12) | Insufficient disruption of existing cycles of criminal behavior (K42) |