Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP11011
Authors: Holger Breinlich
Abstract: I use an event study approach to present novel evidence on the impact of trade liberalization on firm-level profits. Using the uncertainty surrounding the negotiation and ratification process of the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement of 1989 (CUSFTA), I estimate the impact of different types of tariff reductions on the abnormal returns of Canadian manufacturing firms. I find that Canadian import tariff reductions lead to lower, and reductions in Canadian intermediate input tariffs to higher abnormal returns. The impact of U.S. tariff reductions is less clear and depends on the size of the affected firms. I also calculate the total profit increase implied by my estimates. Overall, CUSFTA increased per-period profits by around 1.2%. This was mainly driven by intermediate input tariff reductions which more than offset the negative effect of Canadian import tariff reductions.
Keywords: Canada-US Free Trade Agreement; profitability; stock market; event studies; trade liberalization
JEL Codes: F12; F14; G14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Canadian import tariff reductions (F13) | lower abnormal returns for Canadian manufacturing firms (N12) |
| lower abnormal returns for Canadian manufacturing firms (N12) | negative effect on future profits (G35) |
| reductions in Canadian intermediate input tariffs (F12) | higher abnormal returns (G17) |
| higher abnormal returns (G17) | positive effect on future profits (G31) |
| CUSFTA (F15) | increased per-period profits (D25) |
| US tariff reductions (F13) | varying effects depending on firm size (L25) |