Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP10939
Authors: Christian Helmers; Pramila Krishnan; Manasa Patnam
Abstract: Using high-frequency transaction-level data from an online retail store, we examine whether consumer choices on the internet are consistent with models of limited attention. We test whether consumers are more likely to buy products that receive a saliency shock when they are recommended by new products. To identify the saliency effect, we rely on i) the timing of new product arrivals, ii) the fact that new products are per se highly salient upon arrival, drawing more attention and iii) regional variation in the composition of recommendation sets. We find a sharp and robust 6% increase in the aggregate sales of existing products after they are recommended by a new product. To structurally disentangle the effect of saliency on a consumer?s consideration and choice decision, we use data on individual transactions to estimate a probabilistic choice set model. We find that the saliency effect is driven largely by an expansion of consumers? consideration sets.
Keywords: Advertising; Limited Attention; Online Markets
JEL Codes: D22; K11; M30; O34
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| saliency shock from new products (L15) | sales of existing products (L14) |
| saliency shock (D80) | sales of existing products (L14) |
| saliency shock (D80) | positive spillover effects on recommended products (F61) |
| saliency effect (D91) | expansion of consumers' consideration sets (D19) |
| consideration set expansion (D80) | final choice of products (L15) |