Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP10935
Authors: John Gibson; David J. McKenzie; Halahingano Rohorua; Steven Stillman
Abstract: We examine the long-term impacts of international migration by comparing immigrants who had successful ballot entries in a migration lottery program, and first moved almost a decade ago, with people who had unsuccessful entries into those same ballots. The long-term gain in income is found to be similar in magnitude to the gain in the first year, despite migrants upgrading their education and changing their locations and occupations. This results in large sustained benefits to their immediate family, who have substantially higher consumption, durable asset ownership, savings, and dietary diversity. In contrast we find no measureable impact on extended family.
Keywords: assimilation; household wellbeing; international migration; natural experiment
JEL Codes: F22; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Winning the migration lottery (F22) | Increase in income (E25) |
| Winning the migration lottery (F22) | Substantial lifetime income gain (J17) |
| Winning the migration lottery (F22) | Increase in household welfare (D19) |
| Winning the migration lottery (F22) | Notable rise in durable asset ownership and savings (D14) |
| Migration (F22) | Minimal impact on extended family members remaining in Tonga (J12) |