Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP10821
Authors: Ureo De Paula; Antonio Merlo
Abstract: This paper studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of voters' preferences when voters are ideological. We establish that voter preference distributions and other parameters of interest can be identified from aggregate electoral data. We also show that these objects can be consistently estimated and illustrate our analysis by performing an actual estimation using data from the 1999 European Parliament elections.
Keywords: identification; nonparametric; Voronoi tessellation; voting
JEL Codes: C14; D72
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| voter preference distributions can be identified and estimated from aggregate electoral data (D79) | application of the spatial theory of voting (D79) |
| voters vote ideologically (D72) | retrieve voter preference distributions and other parameters of interest from aggregate electoral data (D72) |
| independence of candidate positions and voter preferences conditioned on observable characteristics (D79) | identification of voter preference distributions (D79) |
| ideological positions of candidates (D79) | corresponding vote shares (D79) |
| voter preferences represented in a geometric space (D79) | electoral outcomes dictated by candidates' positions (D79) |