Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP10739
Authors: Janine Aron; John Muellbauer; Rachel Sebudde
Abstract: Forecasting inflation is challenging in emerging markets, where trade and monetary regimes have shifted, and the exchange rate, energy and food prices are highly volatile. Mobile money is a recent financial innovation giving financial transaction services via a mobile phone, including to the unbanked. Stable models for the 1-month and 3-month-ahead rates of inflation in Uganda, measured by the consumer price index for food and non-food, and for the domestic fuel price, are estimated over 1994-2013. Key features are the use of multivariate models with equilibrium-correction terms in relative prices; introducing non-linearities to proxy state dependence in the inflation process; and applying a ?parsimonious longer lags? (PLL) parameterisation to feature lags up to 12 months. International influences through foreign prices and the exchange rate (including food prices in Kenya after regional integration) have an important influence on the dependent variables, as does the growth of domestic credit. Rainfall deviation from the long-run mean is an important driver for all, most dramatically for food. The domestic money stock is irrelevant for food and fuel inflation, but has a small effect on non-food inflation. Other drivers include the trade and current account balances, fiscal balance, terms of trade and trade openness, and the international interest rate differential. Parameter stability tests suggest the models could be useful for short-term forecasting of inflation. There is no serious evidence of a link between mobile money and inflation.
Keywords: Error Correction Models; Mobile Money; Model Selection; Modelling Inflation
JEL Codes: C22; C51; C52; C53; E31; E37; E52
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Mobile money (E40) | inflation dynamics (E31) |
| Mobile money (E40) | velocity of money circulation (E41) |
| velocity of money circulation (E41) | effective money supply (E51) |
| effective money supply (E51) | inflation (E31) |
| Mobile money (E40) | savings (D14) |
| savings (D14) | inflation (E31) |
| rainfall deviations (Q54) | food prices (Q11) |
| food prices (Q11) | overall inflation (E31) |
| foreign prices (F31) | inflation (E31) |
| domestic credit growth (E51) | inflation (E31) |