Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP10692
Authors: Cline Carrere; Anja Grujovic; Frederic Robert-Nicoud
Abstract: We develop a multi-country, multi-sector trade model featuring risk-averse workers, labor market frictions, unemployment benefits, and equilibrium unemployment. Trade opening leads to a reduction in unemployment when it simultaneously raises welfare and reallocates labor towards sectors with lower-than-average labor market frictions. We then estimate and calibrate the model using employment data from 31 OECD countries and worldwide trade data. Finally, we quantify the potential unemployment, real wage, and welfare effects of repealing NAFTA and raising bilateral tariffs between the US and Mexico to 20 percent. This policy would increase unemployment by 2.4 percent in the us and 48 percent in Mexico.
Keywords: Labor market frictions; Trade; Unemployment
JEL Codes: F15; F16; F17; J64
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| trade opening (F10) | unemployment decrease (J64) |
| trade opening (F10) | unemployment increase (J64) |
| reallocation effect (F16) | unemployment increase (J64) |
| expansion effect (F62) | unemployment decrease (J64) |
| repealing NAFTA (F15) | unemployment increase (in US) (J64) |
| 20% tariff between US and Mexico (F10) | unemployment increase (in US) (J64) |
| 20% tariff between US and Mexico (F10) | unemployment increase (in Mexico) (F66) |