Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP10619
Authors: V. Bhaskar
Abstract: We present international evidence on the marriage market implications of cohort size growth, and set out a theoretical model of how marriage markets adjust to imbalances. Since men marry younger women, secular growth in cohort size worsens the position of women. This effect has been substantial in many Asian countries, and in sub-Saharan Africa. Secular decline in cohort sizes, as is happening in East Asia, improves the position of women. We show that the age gap at marriage will not adjust in order to equilibrate the marriage market in response to persistent imbalances, even though it accommodates transitory shocks. This is true under transferable utility even if age preferences are relatively minor, as well as under non-transferable utility. We examine the distributional consequences on the sexes, and on dowry payments.
Keywords: Dowry; Sex Ratio; Marriage Markets; Marriage Squeeze; Stable Matching
JEL Codes: J12; J13; J16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| secular growth in cohort sizes (J11) | marriage squeeze on women (J12) |
| secular growth in cohort sizes (J11) | deterioration of women's position in marriage market (J12) |
| secular decline in cohort sizes (J11) | improvement of women's position in marriage market (J12) |
| cohort size growth (J11) | age gap at marriage remains stable (J12) |
| changes in effective sex ratio (J79) | nuanced effects on dowries (J12) |