Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP10595
Authors: Emilio Bisetti; Carlo A. Favero; Giacomo Nocera; Claudio Tebaldi
Abstract: Generalized unexpected raise in life expectancy is a source of aggregate risk. Longevity-linked securities are a natural instrument to reallocate these risks by making them tradable in the financial market. This paper extends the Campbell and Viceira (2005) strategic asset allocation model including a longevity-linked investment possibility in addition to equity and fixed income securities. Estimation of the model, based on prices for standardized annuities publicly offered by US insurance companies, shows that aggregate shocks to survival probabilities are predictors for long term returns of the longevity linked securities, and reveals an unexpected predictability pattern. The empirical valuation of the market price of longevity risk confirms that longevity linked securities offer cheap funding opportunities to asset managers willing to leverage their investment portfolio.
Keywords: longevity risk; strategic asset allocation
JEL Codes: G11; G12; G22
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| longevity risk (G52) | strategic asset allocation (G11) |
| longevity-linked securities (G12) | mitigate aggregate risks (G52) |
| aggregate longevity risk (G52) | asset returns (G19) |
| longevity shocks (C41) | annuity price changes (G19) |
| annuity price changes (G19) | returns of longevity-linked securities (G12) |
| optimal portfolio allocation (G11) | strategic response to longevity risk (G52) |