Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP10454
Authors: Sergei Guriev; Daniel Treisman
Abstract: We develop an informational theory of dictatorship. Dictators survive not because of their use of force or ideology but because they convince the public--rightly or wrongly--that they are competent. Citizens do not observe the dictator's type but infer it from signals inherent in their living standards, state propaganda, and messages sent by an informed elite via independent media. If citizens conclude the dictator is incompetent, they overthrow him in a revolution. The dictator can invest in making convincing state propaganda, censoring independent media, co-opting the elite, or equipping police to repress attempted uprisings -- but he must finance such spending with taxes that depress the public's living standards. We show that incompetent dictators can survive as long as economic shocks are not too large. Moreover, their reputations for competence may grow over time. Censorship and co-optation of the elite are substitutes, but both are complements of propaganda. Repression of protests is a substitute for all the other techniques. In some equilibria the ruler uses propaganda and co-opts the elite; in others, propaganda is combined with censorship. The multiplicity of equilibria emerges due to coordination failure among members of the elite. We show that repression is used against ordinary citizens only as a last resort when the opportunities to survive through co-optation, censorship, and propaganda are exhausted. In the equilibrium with censorship, difficult economic times prompt higher relative spending on censorship and propaganda. The results illuminate tradeoffs faced by various recent dictatorships.
Keywords: censorship; dictatorship; propaganda
JEL Codes: D72; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| perceived competence (D83) | dictatorship survival (D70) |
| economic conditions (E66) | perceived competence (D83) |
| state propaganda (P16) | perceived competence (D83) |
| perceived incompetence (D83) | regime change (P39) |
| economic shocks (F69) | dictatorship stability (P16) |
| dictator type (D70) | strategy employed (L21) |
| censorship and cooptation (P26) | propaganda (M38) |
| economic conditions (E66) | censorship and cooptation (P26) |