Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP10059
Authors: Cline Carrere; Vanessa Strauss-Kahn
Abstract: This paper focuses on developing countries that export for the first time to the OECD and obtains several important results on export dynamic, linking exports experience and exports survival. Using product level data at the SITC 5 digit level for 114 developing countries on the 1962-2009 period, we show that prior exports experience obtained in non-OCDE markets increases survival in the OECD market. The effect of experience depreciates however rapidly with time: gaining experience for more than two years is worthless. Moreover, a break in export experience prior to entering the OECD reduces the benefit on survival. Geographic export dynamic reveals that experience is acquired in neighbor, easy to access markets before reaching more distant, richer partners and ultimately serving the OECD. Where the experience is acquired does not however matter for survival.
Keywords: developing countries; duration of export experience; learning; survival analysis
JEL Codes: C41; F10; F14; O50
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| experience in closer, more accessible non-OECD markets (F69) | strategic approach to acquiring export capability (F10) |
| characteristics of the non-OECD partners where experience is gained (O00) | survival in the OECD market (L19) |
| prior export experience in non-OECD markets (F10) | survival duration of exports in the OECD market (F10) |
| having at least one year of prior experience before entering the OECD (F53) | hazard rate of export failure (F10) |
| a break in export experience before entering the OECD (F29) | survival benefit (J17) |