Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP10023
Authors: Fabio Canova; Alan Schlaepfer
Abstract: We date turning points of the reference cycle for 19 Mediterranean countries and analyze their structure and interdependencies. Fluctuations are volatile and not highly correlated across countries; recessions are deep but asynchronous, the distribution of output losses in recessions spread out. Heterogeneities across countries and regions are substantial. Cyclical fluctuations are poorly related to trade and financial linkages. Mediterranean cycles are time varying but their evolution is not linked with the Euro-Mediterranean partnership process.
Keywords: Euromediterranean partnership; Financial interdependencies; Reference cycles; Trade; Turning points
JEL Codes: C32; E32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Euromediterranean partnership (O52) | synchronization of business cycles (F44) |
| trade openness (F43) | synchronization of business cycles (F44) |
| financial interdependencies (F65) | synchronization of business cycles (F44) |
| structural factors (L10) | heterogeneities in business cycles (F44) |